EUAs at €90: Why carbon is not “too expensive” — and why higher prices are increasingly tolerated.

EUAs have returned to €90, a level that traditionally reignites concerns around elevated prices and political intervention. While those concerns are understandable, they are increasingly incomplete. As the EU ETS moves toward 2026, the market is beginning to reprice carbon less as a cyclical energy trade and more as a structural scarcity asset shaped by policy design, time compression, and inelastic demand. Viewed against the system’s remaining trajectory rather than historic trading ranges, current prices increasingly reflect future scarcity rather than past abundance. With temporary oversupply effects fading and tightening becoming visible in market mechanics, higher prices are not an anomaly — they are increasingly required for the system to function as intended.

‍

Request your PDF copy of this Report below:

I would like to receive SparkChange research and occasional update emails. You may unsubscribe at any time and we never share your information with third parties.*

Download

Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.

DISCLAIMERS
This communication has been provided to you for informational purposes only.
‍
This communication is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, financial promotion, investment recommendations or investment research.

This communication is not intended as and is not to be taken as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or interest, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction, including those in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such a solicitation or offer. Distribution of information contained in this communication may be restricted by law. Persons receiving this communication should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions. Any dissemination or other unauthorised use of this information or documents by any person or entity is strictly prohibited.
‍
SparkChange believes the information in this communication to be correct at the date of issue. However, no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy of any of the information provided. Some information in this communication is based on information given/obtained from independent research providers that SparkChange considers to be reliable. Analysis provided in this communication may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and can use one among several alternative methodologies that produce diverse results. Hence, analysis and projections should not be seen as factual and should not be relied upon as accurate predictions of future performance.